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6 min read

when will the lockdown end?

Apr 12, 2020

when will the lockdown end

When will our stay-at-home lockdown end?

I live in Los Angeles, CA, where we have now been on lockdown for about a month.

A few days ago, California Governor Newsom announced a 30-day extension of the shelter-at-home order, through at least May 15th. Ouch. The same is happening in states and countries worldwide.

While I’ve never sat still for so long, I also have never worked harder and been more productive.

Yet the question remains: how long will we be on lockdown? When will life return to some semblance of normalcy?

Yesterday, I held a 90-minute webinar with Tony Robbins for my Abundance Digital community to discuss COVID-19 prevalence, mortality, diagnostics, vaccines and therapeutics.

One of the most interesting topics Tony and I discussed was the difference between Sweden’s response to the virus (no “lockdown”) relative to that of the U.S., UK and other governments that have opted for lockdowns.

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Sweden vs. New Jersey

Sweden neither shut down establishments nor enforced shelter-at-home lockdowns, opting for a more “lax” approach to the pandemic than its Western counterparts.

A nation of around 10.2 million, Sweden is similar in size to the state of New Jersey (~8.9 million residents). Yet surprisingly, if we compare the two, the numbers speak for themselves:



New Jersey


10.3 million

8.9 million

COVID-19 Deaths



COVID-19 Deaths as a % of Population




While Swedish universities and high schools are closed, national preschools and primary schools still run in-person, as restaurants, businesses and public arenas remain open.

Instead of requiring people to stay home, the government has advised civilians to exercise caution through:

  • Social distancing;
  • Limited gatherings (no public gatherings of over 50 people);
  • Mass practice of frequent hand-washing;
  • Sheltering at home if at all sick; and
  • Working remotely when able.

While many indicators signal a turning point in the weeks ahead in various countries, COVID-19 is unlikely to go away anytime soon, and the 62 vaccine development efforts underway could take another year to reach approval.  

The question remains: is a full-fledged, long-term lockdown the best solution?

So when will the lockdowns end?

To generate discussion and tap into the wisdom of the crowd, I’m turning to my FutureLoop Crowd Prediction Engine to ask the question:

When will the last shelter-at-home lockdown be lifted in the U.S.?

Join this prediction challenge by clicking the above link, and I look forward to sharing the results this coming week.

As you think through your prediction, take a minute to consider the following data on actual and projected U.S. COVID-19 deaths per day to inform your vote:

COVID-19 Deaths per Day-1

Please use the chart above to help inform your prediction. The chart shows a projection of deaths per day from COVID-19 made by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), whose projections are being used by state-level governments to forecast infections, deaths, and equipment shortages. Predictions are based upon data provided by the American Hospital Association and the World Health Organization (WHO). The shaded area represents uncertainty in their prediction.

Check out other Crowd Prediction polls

And to participate in our previous polls, click on the links below!

Challenge #1: What is the earliest date that the FDA will approve the first COVID-19 Vaccine?

Challenge #2: What will be the lowest point reached by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) between now & July 31, 2020?

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Join Me

(1) Abundance Digital Online Community: Join my Digital online community of bold, abundance-minded entrepreneurs called Abundance Digital. Abundance Digital is Singularity University's ‘onramp’ for exponential entrepreneurs — those who want to get involved and play at a higher level. Click here to learn more.

(2) Join FutureLoop: Over the past 2 years, I’ve built a machine-learning algorithm that scrapes the world’s news, science journals and social feeds every day to understand how exponential technologies are impacting specific topics & industries. It’s called FutureLoop.

A few weeks ago, I launched "FutureLoop Pandemic Special Edition," a daily comprehensive update on the impact of exponential technologies (AI, Robotics, Drones, Cellular Medicine, CRISPR, Networks & Sensors) on the COVID-19 pandemic.

If you participate, FutureLoop will update you every day on the latest breakthroughs in detection, prevention & cure of the COVID-19. This product is still in Beta, but it’s powerful, high-quality info, and it's free.

Your mindset is your most important tool during this pandemic. Making sure you are consuming the right information is critical to maintaining that mindset. FutureLoop offers "Data-Driven Optimism."

You can subscribe here. It’s free, fun + fast (20 seconds).

Peter H. Diamandis

Written by Peter H. Diamandis


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