When will the FDA approve the first vaccine?
How many people (in total) will be infected by COVID-19 globally over the next year?
When will the stock-market (DOW) hit bottom?
Ever hear of "Crowd Intelligence" or "Wisdom of the Crowd?"
It’s a process by which a large enough group of sufficiently knowledgeable people are able to make a reasonably accurate prediction on a future outcome.
Whether in predicting election outcomes, economic trends, sports results, or even terrorist activity, crowdsourced wisdom has time and again matched or (often) outperformed expert predictions.
Starting in the early 2010s, a project sponsored by the U.S. Director of National Intelligence — the Good Judgment Project — demonstrated that 3,000 moderately informed minds could together outperform even the top foreign policy experts or CIA analysts on questions ranging from Turkey’s adoption of a new constitution, to U.S.-E.U. trade deals.
“We just needed lots of people; we had very few restrictions [...] We wanted people who were interested, and curious, who were moderately well-educated and at least aware enough of the world around them that they listened to the news,” explained UC Berkeley associate professor Don Moore, who co-led the project.
According to one report, when ‘super-predictors’ (crowdsourced individuals who are correct most often) are grouped in teams, these smaller ‘crowds’ can outperform agents with access to classified information by up to 30 percent.
So, welcome to FutureLoop, a platform that combines Machine Learning-driven news aggregation with “Wisdom of the Crowd Polling” to help us answer today's most pressing questions.
Our first question is: "What is the earliest date by which the FDA will approve the first COVID-19 Vaccine?"
Click on the question to answer and participate!
What is FutureLoop and how do I use it?
FutureLoop uses machine learning (ML) and human intelligence (HI) in a symbiotic loop, one that iterates to produce accurate, aggregate predictions, and offers anonymized reasonings for those predictions.
By anonymizing and aggregating thousands, or even millions of user-submitted predictions and justifications, FutureLoop then presents these analyses to users, allowing you to interrogate the analysis, and then update your own estimate whenever you change your mind.
Users can also vote on the reasons provided by other users for their predictions (a crowd-filtering layer that helps us understand why people lean the way they do).
These upvoted predictions and reasons, in turn, get put at the top of the heap, alerting all users of the latest crowdsourced opinions.
Join the Loop
Join FutureLoop: Over the past 2 years, I’ve built a machine-learning algorithm that scrapes the world’s news, science journals and social feeds every day to understand how exponential technologies are impacting specific topics & industries. It’s called FutureLoop. I was getting ready to share it publicly, but the current crisis has changed my plans.
Last week, I launched "FutureLoop Pandemic Special Edition," a daily comprehensive update on the impact of exponential technologies (AI, Robotics, Drones, Cellular Medicine, CRISPR, Networks & Sensors) on the COVID-19 pandemic.
If you participate, FutureLoop will update you every day on the latest breakthroughs in detection, prevention & cure of the COVID-19. This product is still in Beta, but it’s powerful, high-quality info, and it's free.
Your mindset is your most important tool during this pandemic. Making sure you are consuming the right information is critical to maintaining that mindset. FutureLoop offers "Data-Driven Optimism."
You can subscribe here. It’s free, fun + fast (20 seconds).